General
Characteristics
- Soybeans on crushing and solvent
extraction yield soyoil at 18% recovery and soymeal.
About 85% is crushed worldwide.
- Soybean and soyoil production
of 170-185 and 25-31 million tons account for 55-58%
and 25-30% of global oilseed and oil production respectively.
- US, Brazil, Argentina, China,
India are the major producers
in order of production. In US, India, China crop starts
arriving from Aug-Sept, while it starts from Jan-Feb
in S. America.
- In the world 55-60, 8-10 and 42-45
million tons of beans, oil and meal are traded annually.
- USA (20-30 million tons), Brazil
(12-18 million tons), Argentina (5-10 million tons)
are the exporters of beans, while China (18-20 million
tons) and EU (15-18 million tons) are the major importers.
- Argentina (3-5 million tons) and
Brazil (2-3 million tons) are the major exporters
of oil. China (1.5-2.5 million tons) and India (1-2
million tons) are the major importers of oil.
- Crushers, refined oil manufacturers,
animal feed manufacturers and farmers are the major
stakeholders in the soy value chain worldwide.
Important World Soy Markets
- Chicago (CBOT), largest soy futures
market
- China, where beans and meal are
traded at Dalian Commodity Exchange
- Argentina and Brazil FOB determine
the physical prices
Indian
Scenario
- India produces 5-7 million tons of beans,
1 million ton of oil and 3-5 million tons of soymeal in
a normal year.
-
With imports, the total oil availability in the country is
around 2.5 million tons.
-
Madhya Pradesh (3.5-4.5 million tons), Maharashtra, Rajasthan
are the major producers of soybean in India.
-
The production is highly dependent on the monsoon and
fluctuates between years.
-
Soy is a Kharif crop, sown in June-July and harvested by
September-October. Peak arrivals are from October-November.
-
The prices follow the international sentiments and display
very high volatility.
India In World Soy Industry
(Rounded
figs.) |
India
|
World
|
%
Share |
| |
(In
million tons) |
|
Annual
Seed Production |
6 |
180 |
3 |
Annual
Oil Production |
1 |
30 |
3.3 |
Annual
Oil Imports |
1.5 |
9 |
16.7 |
Annual
Oil Consumption |
2.5 |
30 |
8.3 |
Annual
Meal Production |
3.5 |
130 |
3.5 |
Annual
Meal Exports |
2.5 |
43 |
5.8 |
Annual
Meal Consumption |
1 |
130 |
0.7 |
Daily Price Volatility of Refined Soyoil in India
| Daily
Volatility in % |
<
1 |
1
- 3 |
>
3 |
| %
Occurrence |
81.95 |
17.69 |
0.36 |
Maximum
Daily Variation in 2003-04 = 3.8%
Major Trading Centres
Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Mandsore in Madhya Pradesh, Nagpur in
Maharashtra, Kota in Rajasthan are major trading centres.
Market Influencing Factors
- Weather
at all the producing centers, domestic and international.
The pod bearing period, being the most crucial.
- The
area planted, determined by the price of soybean against
that of competitive crops, viz., maize, jowar, bajra.
- International
price movement, the futures market at CBOT being the
major international reference market.
- Pests
and diseases.
- The
supply-demand and price scenario of competitive oils,
viz., palmoil.
- Demand
for soymeal from the feed sector and the entire fundamentals
of this sector.
- The
crush margin between meal, oil and seed
|
